CMC Markets专栏:离岸人民币达负利率借贷

3月31日，香港离岸人民币银行同业隔夜拆放利率（Hibor）突然出现暴跌至负值-3.725%，离岸人民币出现了史上首次的负利率水平。但仅在2个多月前，1月11日，Hibor增一日暴涨至66.8%。人民币隔夜拆息利率在2016年第一季度便爆出如此非正常的波动，让人倒吸一口冷气，人民币离岸市场发生了什么？怎么人民币也能够出现“借钱还能拿利息”的好事？这不是只有欧洲、日本最喜欢的老招数吗？其实事情的由来其实是这样的…

这还要从中国央行在香港市场抑制人民币空头开始，由于国际金融市场自去年便吹起的做空人民币的风潮，人民币资本外流与人民币贬值一度成为市场主流蔓延数月。我将近期的一系列事件理出一些逻辑来，以下可能为事情的来龙去脉：

2015年8月4日，为最后冲击SDR货币篮子，中国央行实行人民币贬值1.9%，创自1994年最大贬值幅度。新的央行每日汇率浮动制度实行，放宽了人民币自由浮动的空间，更大程度上由市场供给与需求来决定其币值，随后人民币贬值风潮愈演愈烈；

2015年11月30日，代表全球188个国家的IMF执行董事作出决定，认为人民币符合“自由使用”的标准，将人民币纳入现由美元、欧元、英镑、日元主宰的SDR货币篮子。人民币将逐步国际化自由兑换让市场对于人民币资产下滑更加担忧；

2015年12月31日，离岸人民币对美元出现急跌，离岸人民币与在岸人民币一度出现1200点价差。一些投机客利用价差进行套利行为，中国央行为防止非正常跨境资本流动，暂停了至少3家外资银行的跨境外汇业务；

2016年1月11日，中国央行为稳定人民币汇率采用了政府性行为在香港市场大量购入人民币，以致借贷人民币隔夜成本一度涨至66.82%。人民币空头在离岸市场被强力打压，人民币币值逐步趋向稳定；

2016年1月25日，中国央行宣布对境外金融机构在境内金融机构存放执行正常存款准备金率政策，此政策出台亦是为以此收紧离岸人民币流动性，稳定离岸汇市；香港市场离岸人民币流动性收紧；

2016年3月31日，香港离岸人民币银行同业隔夜拆放利率（Hibor）突然出现暴跌至负值-3.725%，离岸人民币出现了史上首次的负利率水平。

据以上事件分析，昨日香港人民币离岸市场的负利率想象原有主要有几个方面：

直接的影响因素是由于昨天是计算境外机构在岸存放人民币准备金的日期，为降低所缴准备金量离岸金融机构不惜成本贴钱将人民币存量减少以避免所缴金额被锁三个月；其次中国央行有可能再次宽松实行降息与降准，金融机构更倾向于借出人民币以释放流动性；另外，据有关消息称，国信证券在一笔香港交易的人民币证券发生违约，是中国国有企业在中国境外债券市场中首次违约，可能使市场对人民币资产的投资信心受到影响。

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Tina Teng在2015年6月份加入CMC Markets 担任销售与客户培训主管职务，负责亚太地区客户的培训和经济评论的撰写工作。她具有其独树一帜的市场视角和技术分析方法，认为金融市场是集历史，经济，政治，心理学与哲学于一身的学问。技术分析是市场基本面的可视性技术语言；而对于技术性语言的解读与对各国家经济、政治与历史背景分析的结合，与对投资心理状态的理解才会是对金融市场最全面的感知。自2012至2015年，Tina Teng曾任职金融经纪公司客户服务部经理为客户提供外汇差价合约方面的培训工作。此前，自2005年至2009年，她曾经在中国中央电视台广告经济中心任职，负责撰写中国广告经济方面的评论文章，造就了她对于中国经济现状和企业现状有深入的理解和敏锐的洞察力。